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The market chart is hard to understand at a glance and hard to understand at longer.

Open sea212 opened this issue 3 years ago • 5 comments

The chart is hard to read. A user without much knowledged would struggle to understand what is going on.

Suggestions (not all can happen):

  • Show between max and min ZTG
  • Allow user to scale y axis
  • "Implied % odds" on left-hand-side
  • ZTG scale on right-hand-side / by clicking a button
  • Coloured bars for different options

The market Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? is a good example for that:

image

As we can see in the image above, much information gets visually lost due to the representation. Applying functions on the values of the chart might also be helpful, such as showing the logarithmic values.

Here is an alternative way that Manifold does it:

Image

sea212 avatar Sep 15 '22 11:09 sea212

I suggest that it would make more sense if it was "Implied % odds". That feels more like how users will think.

Nathanpmyoung avatar Sep 15 '22 13:09 Nathanpmyoung

I agree @Nathanpmyoung . In that case a normalization must happen, such that sum(outcome_percentages) = 100, since currently arbitrage is possible (i.e. sum(outcome_percentages) can be greater than 100).

sea212 avatar Sep 16 '22 14:09 sea212

Sure, seems reasonable. and it’s fine because it says, implied

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On Fri, Sep 16 2022 at 3:33 pm, Harald Heckmann @.***> wrote:

I agree @Nathanpmyoung https://github.com/Nathanpmyoung . In that case a normalization must happen, such that sum(outcome_percentages) = 100, since currently arbitrage is possible (i.e. sum(outcome_percentages) can be greater than 100).

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Nathanpmyoung avatar Sep 16 '22 17:09 Nathanpmyoung

We used to use 0 to max values though @lsaether requested it be adjusted to this, do you still feel the same way?

Robiquet avatar Sep 17 '22 11:09 Robiquet

I think the manifold graph in the description is the best way. Stacks of colours for each outcome.

Nathanpmyoung avatar Sep 20 '22 18:09 Nathanpmyoung