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In a recent article Blanchard (2014) recognizes some of the shortcomings of this kind of approach, its assumption of linearity and oblivion of the financial system. He concludes his article by saying that DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models can still be useful if we stay away from what he calls the dark corners - where the economy can malfunction badly - and leaves an insightful policy advice...” stay away from dark corners”! (Blanchard 2014, p. 4) Reading this, one comes to mind a famous quote from Keynes, that slightly modified seems quite appropriate: Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in the dark corners they can only tell us that if we stay away from those dark corners everything will be fine. - Pedro Oliveira Pratas e Sousa

The shocking thing with Ergodicity Economics is that an Ergodicity Economics null model is often more powerful than a highly complex mainstream economics model. That’s why we’ve been working with null models: they’re so much more powerful than has been appreciated that it’s really silly, at this point, to do anything else. Of course such models can’t tell us why the fast-food restaurants in the suburbs of Boston had a bad October this year. So they’re limited in what they can say, but they’re extremely powerful in getting the big picture right. For instance, Re-allocating Geometric Brownian Motion produces a realistic power-law tail for the wealth distribution. There are hundreds of papers out there struggling to explain the Pareto tail with detailed models and many parameters. - Ole Peters on Ergodicity Economics

People

• Sornette
• Bouchaud
• Vineer Bhansali
• Emanuel Derman
• Harel Jacobson
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• Ray Dalio
• Steve Keen
• Perry Mehrling
• Robert Shiller
• Jim Simons
• Lyn Alden
• Stanley Druckenmiller

Papers

• Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon? - Richard Bolling
• Money creation in the modern economy - Bank of England
• Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds - facts, theory and evidence - Bank of England, Michael Kumhof
• Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis" - Steve Keen
• A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation - Meb Faber
• The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 - Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor
• Everybody's Doing it: Short Volatility Strategies and Shadow Financial Insurers
• Tight money paradox on the loose: a fiscalist hyperinflation - Eduardo Loyo
• Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity - Ole Peters
• A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations - Rodney Maddock, Michael Carter
• Emerging Market BusinessCycles: The Cycle is the Trend - Mark Aguiar, Gita Gopinath
• Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread - Claudio Borio, Mathias Drehmann and Dora Xia Monetary
• The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics - Colander
• Deregulator: Judgment Day for microeconomics - Steve Keen
• [The Dynamics of the Monetary Circuit - Steve Keen]
• Dennis Rodman and the Art of Portfolio Optimization
• Volatility: A New Return Driver? - Greggory Flinn, Roger J. Schreiner
• Easy Volatility Investing - Tony Cooper (2013)
• Everybody’s Doing It: Short Volatility Strategies and Shadow Financial Insurers - Vineer Bhansali, Lawrence Harris (2018)
• Volatility-of-Volatility Risk- Darien Huang, Christian Schlag, Ivan Shaliastovich, Julian Thimme (2018)
• Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile - Taleb
• The Distribution of Returns - David E. Harris (2017)
• Safe Haven Investing Part I - Not all risk mitigation is created equal - Universa Investments (2017)
• Safe Haven Investing Part II - Not all risk is created equal - Universa Investments (2017)
• Safe Haven Investing Part III - Those wonderful tenbaggers - Universa Investments (2017)
• Insurance makes wealth grow faster - Ole Peters, Alexander Adamou (2017)
• Ergodicity economics - Ole Peters (2018)
• The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 - Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor (2019)
• Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk - Artemis Capital Management (2017)
• Trading Volatility - Emanuel Derman
• Trends Everywhere - Abhilash Babu, Ari Levine, Yao Hua Ooi, Lasse Heje Pedersen, Erik Stamelos (2018)
• Two centuries of trend following - Y. Lempérière, C. Deremble, P. Seager, M. Potters, J. P. Bouchaud
• Risk Premia: Asymmetric Tail Risks and Excess Returns - Bouchaud
• A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing - AQR
• Why Not 100% Equities - AQR
• Risk premia: asymmetric tail risks and excess returns - Bouchaud
• Black Scholes and the normal distribution
• Why log returns?
• The Variation of Some Other Speculative Prices - Benoit Mandelbrot
• A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks : Application to Stress Testing - Schmieder, Kinda, Taleb, Loukoianova, Canetti
• Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle - George Soros
• Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic - Taleb
• A Brief History of Volatility Models - Harel Jacobson

Commodities and Gold

• Gold Investing with Lyn Alden

Finance

• Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Brandon Yarckin, Chitpuneet Mann, Damir Delic, Mark Spitznage
• Risk Premia: Asymmetric Tail Risks and Excess Returns

Argentina

• Un modelo de estancamiento económico - Estudio de caso sobre la economía argentina - Oscar Braun, Leonard Joy

Complexity

• Modeling complex ecological economic systems: toward an evolutionary, dynamic understanding of people and nature - Robert Costanza

• Complexity Economics Shows Us Why Laissez-Faire Economics Always Fails

Ergodicity economics

• Dinamics of inequality - Ole Peters, Alexander Adamou

Books

• Where Does Money Come From?: A Guide To The Uk Monetary And Banking System - Josh Ryan-Collins, Tony Greenham, Richard Werner, Andrew Jackson

• Debunking economics - Steve Keen

• Ergodcity economics - Ole Peters

• Stigum's Money Market - Marcia Stigum

• The New Lombard Street: How the Fed Became the Dealer of Last Resort - Perry G. Mehrling

• Stabilizing an Unstable Economy: A Twentieth Century Fund Report - Hyman P. Minsky

• Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics - Richard H. Thaler

• Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises - Ray Dalio

• Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

• The (Mis)Behavior of Markets - Benoît B. Mandelbrot

• Irrational Exuberance - Robert J. Shiller

• The Wealth of Nations - Adam Smith

• Where money comes from - Josh Collins

• Extreme Economies: Survival, Failure, Future — Lessons from the World’s Limits - Richard Davies

• The Great Reversal - Thomas Philippon

• The Code of Capital: How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality

Finance books

• Option Volatility and Pricing 2nd Ed. - Natemberg (2014)

• Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives 10th Ed. - Hull (2017)

• Trading Options Greeks: How Time, Volatility, and Other Pricing Factors Drive Profits 2nd Ed. - Passarelli (2012)

• Trading Volatility - Bennet (2014)

• Volatility Trading 2nd Ed. - Sinclair (2013)

• Dynamic Hedging - Taleb (1997)

• The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide - Gatheral (2006)

• The Volatility Smile - Derman & Miller (2016)

• The Eurodollar Futures and Options Handbook

• Trading and Exchanges : Market Microstructure for Practitioners

• The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice - Leonard C. Maclean Edward O. Thorp, William T. Ziemba

• AQR research

• Alhambra research

• Alpha architect research

• Artemis Capital research

• Meb Faber's research

Online courses

• Economics of Money and Banking - Perry G Mehrling

• Financial Markets - Robert Shiller

History and others

• The Money Interest and the Public Interest : American Monetary Thought, 1920-1970 - Perry Mehrling

• More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite - Sebastian Mallaby

• The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution

• Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market - Walter Bagehot

• Adam Smith : What He Thought, and Why it Matters - Jesse Norman

• The Marshall Plan : Dawn of the Cold War - Benn Steil

• The Code of Capital: How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality - Katharina Pistor