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Logistic Growth

Open zwelitunyiswa opened this issue 3 years ago • 2 comments

First of all, this is a great library. Well done!

I have a question:

I see that orbit has a logistic option for "global_trend_option". How would I let the model know that there is a maximum carrying capacity or saturation point for the estimate? Something along this line is implemented in Facebook Prophet: https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/saturating_forecasts.html .

zwelitunyiswa avatar Sep 16 '21 16:09 zwelitunyiswa

In the "global_trend_option" of DLT, when you specify logistic trend, the max carrying capacity is also estimated by the model (stan). We could consider implementing user specified value in the future.

edwinnglabs avatar Sep 17 '21 16:09 edwinnglabs

Thank you, @edwinnglabs. That would be great, as sometimes the carrying capacity is known (e.g. a hotel, or healthcare facility). Thanks again for the great work.

zwelitunyiswa avatar Sep 20 '21 19:09 zwelitunyiswa