Create Ensembles

[jacobbieker]

Detailed Description

If the model is fast enough at inference, it could be quite easy and cheap to generate a lot of forecasts at once. The original implementation took 0.8 seconds for a 5 day forecast, so a 100 member ensemble could be created in 80 seconds, which is much larger than most of the ensembles generated by GFS at least.

Context

Ensembles can be quite important for helpiung with probablistic forecasts.

Possible Implementation

One way would be the same as the skillful nowcasting model, where we have a latent vector that adds some noise to the inputs to generate ensembles. But even easier, and more similar to real NWPs, is to just perturb the initial state and run again, i.e. change the 2m temperature by a bit, or something.