Metaculus-Twitter-bot
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nikosbosse
Replace custom bot chart with default Metaculus link preview
Given that Metaculus links now have a nice auto-generated preview with a chart & more info, I think we should do away with our custom-made chart for the bot. So that:
would instead be:
What are your thoughts?
I agree! Looks great, and has more information :)
On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 at 19:36, Edouard Mathieu @.***> wrote:
Given that Metaculus links now have a nice auto-generated preview with a chart & more info, I think we should do away with our custom-made chart for the bot. So that:
[image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/7103774/195916413-88aea931-689f-4028-b99d-c2d390781014.png
would instead be:
[image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/7103774/195917135-2a67b39e-b5b5-4637-816b-b3a301477164.png
What are your thoughts?
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I think there are a few reasons against switching that we should consider: The most important one is that the preview gets refetched every few hours, meaning that the plot will change, depending on when you see the tweet. So it could say "community 8%" and the plot shows 30% a few weeks later. This may be a feature as well as a bug, but I'm personally leaning towards the bug here. How did you generate the preview, @edomt? I'm not sure this is true for the screenshot, but there is already a mismatch between the "30% likely" and the "44%" in the tweet. Also in the past there have been issues with the automated preview (parts were cut off, formatting didn't work as expected). I could ask for more details about what the current known issues are - I'm not sure how important they are for our purposes, but if there is something it will likely not be fixed any time soon unless we do it ourselves. The year is unfortunately missing from our plot (which is better in the preview), but our plot has uncertainty around it, which is nice. What do you think? I'm open to being convinced that we should switch.
My example above was photoshopped, so the mismatch is normal :)
Hmm true, I didn't think of that, it's true that the preview will change over time including in old tweets. At the same time, I think that the purpose of the bot means that people won't really ever look at its old tweets, so I don't think this is too much of an issue.
Overall – and unless the dev team tells you there are currently big technical issues with the previews – I think it would make sense to switch to the preview, and iron out smaller issues with the preview on Metaculus's side, rather than keep a separate system of visualization for this bot.
Currently my only data point is that Christian had asked me to work on a second Metaculus bot and he specifically preferred our custom plots over the default preview. I'll check with him and others. I think the moment the system starts creating trouble for us it definitely makes sense to switch.