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100% pattern prediction changes to another pattern

Open TurnipTycoon opened this issue 4 years ago • 1 comments

Things to check

  • Have you forced a refresh in your browser (e.g. ctrl+F5 in Chrome/Firefox)?
    • yes
  • Have you made sure the first time buyer option is correct? If you're unsure, try it both ways
    • yes
  • Have you time-travelled this week? Travelling backwards resets the prices, and therefore you must not put prices in from both before & after the time-travel
    • no

Describe the bug

The following inputs predict a 100% chance of a large spike on Tuesday evening:

Not first time buying Small spike previous week 105 daisy Mae price 91 bells Monday morning 127 bells Monday evening 149 bells Tuesday morning

Screenshot_20200609-174129_Chrome

However, upon checking the Tuesday evening price, I got 163 which is outside the large spike bounds. When I update my inputs to include 163 for Tuesday evening, I get a prediction of 100% small spike.

Screenshot_20200609-174409_Chrome

Note that I get this issue regardless of last week's pattern. I tried every pattern including unknown.

To Reproduce Steps to reproduce the behavior: Enter the inputs I used above.

Permalink to your prices Without Tuesday evening price https://turnipprophet.io?prices=105.91.127.149.........&pattern=3

With Tuesday evening price https://turnipprophet.io?prices=105.91.127.149.163........&pattern=3

Expected behavior The app contradicts itself by declaring a large spike to be certain (100%), only to subsequently declare a small spike to be certain(100%) I would expect the odds of a large and small spike to be nonzero but not 100% if either was possible as of Tuesday morning.

Screenshots See earlier

Desktop (please complete the following information):

  • OS: [e.g. iOS]
  • Browser [e.g. chrome, safari]
  • Version [e.g. 22]

Smartphone (please complete the following information):

  • Device: Samsung galaxy s 10 plus
  • OS: android
  • Browser chrome
  • Version 83.0.4103.96 (chrome)

Additional context

TurnipTycoon avatar Jun 10 '20 00:06 TurnipTycoon

I had a similar experience.

Up to and including Thursday morning, the predicted pattern was 100% small spike: https://turnipprophet.io?prices=96.80.76.72.69.64.61.58.....&pattern=0

However, Thursday afternoon the prices decreased again (outside the predicted range) and the pattern changed to 100% decreasing:

https://turnipprophet.io?prices=96.80.76.72.69.64.61.58.54....&pattern=0

jayrhynas avatar Jun 11 '20 16:06 jayrhynas