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FRP proposal Predictions Market Arbitrage

Open saguillo2000 opened this issue 10 months ago • 2 comments

saguillo2000 avatar Feb 10 '25 16:02 saguillo2000

Thanks for submitting this proposal! We will review it and get back to you with any questions or feedback.

sarahalle avatar Feb 12 '25 22:02 sarahalle

Hi Oriol, Iʻm the market research lead at Flashbots. I read through your proposal and agree that its an under-researched area. I havenʻt thoroughly investigated prediction markets but know there might be a few markets to look at:

  • Fed Rates. Depending on the liquidity, this might be a good hedge for traders. Is there any correlation with the yield curve trades heading into an announcement / meeting?
  • Crypto prices. Are there any hedges in perps when large bets are made? Are market makers using these markets like CBBCs?
  • Business. Itʻd be rather interesting to see how the AI models rank their own probability for some of the AI markets.

Happy to discuss more on a call with you!

tesaho avatar Feb 13 '25 10:02 tesaho

Hi @saguillo2000! Thanks for submitting this proposal and sorry for the delay. We are excited about this project and want to fund your work. I'll accept it as FRP-51 and reach out via email to get the details for the grant agreement.

sarahalle avatar Apr 14 '25 19:04 sarahalle