2020 General Election Results

[mvastola]

Can you provide any insight into how (if at all) data sources will be updated as election results roll in on Nov 3rd?

For instance, in the presidential toplines will the fields ecwin_inc and ecwin_chal (or some other value) be updated to reflect probabilities that take into account exit polls and/or precinct data as it comes in?

And/or will those (or other) fields change to 1 or 0 as states are called? If so, what source (i.e. authority) will be relied on to determine if a state can be called?

Thanks a lot for providing this data!

PS: If no such updates to the data will be made, can you indicate when the final update to this data will be released?

Thanks again!

[e-traudt]

States that cheat will be canceled by the New Republican House, if the model fails to include that it is canceled now.

On Sun, Oct 18, 2020 at 7:28 PM Mike Vastola [email protected] wrote:

Can you provide any insight into how (if at all) data sources will be updated as election results roll in on Nov 3rd?

For instance, in the presidential toplines https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv will the fields https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/election-forecasts-2020#presidential-forecast ecwin_inc and ecwin_chal (or some other value) be updated to reflect probabilities that take into account exit polls and/or precinct data as it comes in?

And/or will those (or other) fields change to 1 or 0 as states are called? If so, what source (i.e. authority) will be relied on to determine if a state can be called?

Thanks a lot for providing this data!

PS: If no such updates to the data will be made, can you indicate when the final update to this data will be released?

Thanks again!

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[mvastola]

States that cheat will be canceled by the New Republican House, if the model fails to include that it is canceled now. @e-traudt well that was decidedly unhelpful.

[tuchandra]

For the Democratic primaries, they froze their forecasts on the day of major primaries. See South Carolina, Super Tuesday and a week after, and more that I can't find. I imagine they'll do the same for the general, though I don't work there and can't speak for sure!