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Is prophet even good for this type of tasks?

Open mlinmg opened this issue 1 year ago • 2 comments

I'm working on a forecasting problem where my client has data for around 5 years, but the sales events occur sporadically. These sales events typically last about a week out of a month, and both the dates and lengths of the events can vary widely.

I've been trying to use Prophet to forecast future earnings, but I'm encountering difficulties in capturing the right trends. I attempted to use the holidays functionality in Prophet to model these events, but since they can vary significantly, I'm concerned that Prophet might not be able to make accurate forecasts, maybe a better suit would be a DT, what do you think?

mlinmg avatar Aug 05 '23 13:08 mlinmg

Are you trying to use seasonality? it worked for me to get these gaps of high sales and low, here's an example: your_model.add_seasonality(name='weekly', period=30.5, fourier_order=6) # Adjusted Fourier order

AlexandroLuis avatar Aug 08 '23 11:08 AlexandroLuis

Yes but this problem does not have seasonality(maybe like weekly but it's not standardised

mlinmg avatar Aug 15 '23 13:08 mlinmg