Matrix of weights

[brunocarlin]

My suggestion is to create an matrix with all possible combinations of like

Then a function can create an matrix with all possible combinations e.g:

aut<- auto.arima() = 0.1 
ets <- ets() = 0,4

aut||---||--- ---||ets||--- ---||---||the aut||ets||--- aut||---||aut ---||ets||aut aut||ets||the Then divide each line by sum of members

Maybe this demo demonstrates it better example from https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/benchmark-combination/

  h<- 12
  y<- USAccDeaths
  fcasts <- rbind(
    N = snaive(y, h)$mean,
    E = forecast(ets(USAccDeaths), h)$mean,
    A = forecast(auto.arima(y), h)$mean,
    T = thetaf(y, h)$mean)
  colnames(fcasts) <- seq(h)
  method_names <- rownames(fcasts)
  # Compute all possible combinations
  method_choice <- rep(list(0:1), length(method_names))
  names(method_choice) <- method_names
  combinations <- expand.grid(method_choice) %>% tail(-1) %>% as.matrix() #Here 
  # Construct names for all combinations
  for (i in seq(NROW(combinations))) {
    rownames(combinations)[i] <- paste0(method_names[which(combinations[i, ] > 0)], 
                                        collapse = "")
  }
  # Compute combination weights
  combinations <- sweep(combinations, 1, rowSums(combinations), FUN = "/")

The only thing holding me back is my inexperience with programming, but I would replace the 1s the #Here,we also we have an unique opportunity to leverage our knowledge of the weights generated in the cross validation process and semi-automate a good choice for all series for example if weight x < y , 1 in combinations = 0.

This matrix could be used to create accuracy() function to see which is the overall better combination, an extension would be to add the matrix for weights = "equal" and weights = "insample.errors"

Maybe add a similar matrix for all Horizons so we could implement #17.

Sorry if it was confusing, and for the bad english.

[brunocarlin]

Ok I have sucesfully implemented a way to check out of bounds performance of all methods

library(forecastHybrid)
library(tictoc)
library(tidyverse)
library(furrr)

benchmarks <- function(y, h) {
  require(forecast)
  hm1<- hybridModel(
    y,
    models = "aefnstz",
    weights = "cv.errors",
    cvHorizon = frequency(y),
    windowSize = length(y) - frequency(y) * 2,
    horizonAverage = TRUE
  )
  
  aC = forecast(hm1$auto.arima,h)
  eC = forecast(hm1$ets,h)
  fC = forecast(hm1$thetam,h)
  nC = forecast(hm1$nnetar,h)
  sC = forecast(hm1$stlm,h)
  tC = forecast(hm1$tbats,h)
  zC = forecast(hm1$snaive,h)
  
  fcastsC <- rbind(
    aC = aC$mean,
    eC = eC$mean,
    fC = fC$mean,
    nC = nC$mean,
    sC = sC$mean,
    tC = tC$mean,
    zC = zC$mean[1:h]
  )
  
  colnames(fcastsC) <- seq(h)
  method_names <- rownames(fcastsC)
  # Compute all possible combinations
  Weights <- rbind(hm1$weights)
  method_choice <-list()
  Lenght <-rep(1, length(Weights))
  for (i in seq_along(Lenght)) {
    method_choice[[i]] <- c(0, Weights[i]) 
    
  }
  names(method_choice) <- method_names
  combinations <- expand.grid(method_choice) %>% tail(-1) %>% as.matrix()
  # Construct names for all combinations
  for (i in seq(NROW(combinations))) {
    rownames(combinations)[i] <- paste0(method_names[which(combinations[i, ] > 0)], 
                                        collapse = "")
  }
  combinationsC <- sweep(combinations, 1, rowSums(combinations), FUN = "/")
  
  
  #Combinations Averages
  
  aA = forecast(hm1$auto.arima,h)
  eA = forecast(hm1$ets,h)
  fA = forecast(hm1$thetam,h)
  nA = forecast(hm1$nnetar,h)
  sA = forecast(hm1$stlm,h)
  tA = forecast(hm1$tbats,h)
  zA = forecast(hm1$snaive,h)
  
  fcastsA <- rbind(
    aA = aA$mean,
    eA = eA$mean,
    fA = fA$mean,
    nA = nA$mean,
    sA = sA$mean,
    tA = tA$mean,
    zA = zA$mean[1:h]
  )
  
  colnames(fcastsA) <- seq(h)
  method_names <- rownames(fcastsA)
  # Compute all possible combinations
  method_choice <- rep(list(0:1), length(method_names))
  names(method_choice) <- method_names
  combinations <- expand.grid(method_choice) %>% tail(-1) %>% as.matrix()
  # Construct names for all combinations
  for (i in seq(NROW(combinations))) {
    rownames(combinations)[i] <- paste0(method_names[which(combinations[i, ] > 0)], 
                                        collapse = "")
  }
  # Compute combination weights
  combinationsA <- sweep(combinations, 1, rowSums(combinations), FUN = "/")
  
  
  
  CombinationsFC <- combinationsC %*% fcastsC
  combinationsFA <- combinationsA %*% fcastsA
  
  combinationsFAC <- rbind(CombinationsFC,combinationsFA)
  
  return(combinationsFAC)
  
}

Then we can apply this function to any dataset we want a good summary on how well Model Combinations fare

Test Data Since I arbitarily choose a value for cv.horrizon I need to crop the dataset for 2 too short series

---

library(Mcomp)
library(rlist)
SubsetM3 <- list.filter(M3, "MONTHLY" %in% period & n > 48)

Create Function to test errors

---

ErrorFunction <- function(u) {
  train <- u$x
  test <- u$xx
  print(u$sn)
  tic(paste("Hybrid Model Call",u$sn,sep = ""))
  f <- benchmarks(train, u$h)
  toc()
  error <- -sweep(f, 2, test)
  pcerror <- (200 * abs(error) / sweep(abs(f), 2, abs(test), FUN = "+")) %>%
    as_tibble() %>%
    mutate(Method = rownames(f)) %>%
    gather(key = h, value = sAPE, -Method)
  scalederror <- (abs(error) / mean(abs(diff(train, lag = frequency(train))))) %>%
    as_tibble() %>%
    mutate(Method = rownames(f)) %>%
    gather(key = h, value = ASE, -Method)
  return(list(pcerror = pcerror, scalederror = scalederror))
}

Compute "symmetric" percentage errors and scaled errors

---

plan(multiprocess)  
tic("Whole Process")
errors <- future_map(SubsetM3,ErrorFunction) 
toc()

Construct a tibble with all results

---

M3errors <- tibble(
  Series = names(SubsetM3),
  Period = map_chr(SubsetM3, "period"),
  se = map(errors, "scalederror"),
  pce = map(errors, "pcerror")) %>%
  unnest() %>%
  select(-h1, -Method1) %>%
  mutate(h = as.integer(h), 
         Period = factor(str_to_title(Period), 
                         levels = c("Monthly","Quarterly","Yearly","Other")))

accuracy <- M3errors %>%
  group_by(Period, Method, h) %>%
  summarize(MASE=mean(ASE), sMAPE=mean(sAPE)) %>%
  ungroup()

Find names of original methods

---

original_methods <- unique(accuracy[["Method"]])
original_methods <- original_methods[str_length(original_methods)==1L]

Compute summary table of accuracy measures

---

accuracy_table <- accuracy %>%
  group_by(Method,Period) %>%
  summarise(
    sMAPE = mean(sMAPE, na.rm = TRUE),
    MASE = mean(MASE, na.rm = TRUE) ) %>%
  arrange(sMAPE,MASE) %>% ungroup()

best <- accuracy_table %>% filter(MASE==min(MASE))
accuracy_table <- accuracy_table %>%
  filter(Method %in% original_methods | Method %in% best$Method) %>%
  arrange(Period, MASE) %>%
  select(Period, Method, sMAPE, MASE)
knitr::kable(accuracy_table)

[brunocarlin]

Can you show me how to solve all possible combinations of models with the cv.horrizon up to 18 #17? I think you may need to drop the stlm model, but that should be fine.