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Careful Synthesis II Progress Incorrect
Using Careful Synthesis II on "High Steel Nugget", Lv61 ARM Recipe provided 85 Progress. Crafting Optimizer stated it was calculated at 88 Progress. This calculation results in a fail due to this.
Craftmanship 467 Control 442 CP 318
In addition to that one, there was another recipe with the same issue.
ARM Lv59 Craftmanship 467 Control 442 CP 318
High Steel Ingot.
Standard Sythesis provided 106 Progress (stated 111) and Careful Synthesis II gave 96 (stated 103)
Does it provide accurate results when trying to craft something with the same recipe level as your crafter level?
I think the inaccuracy is mostly due to the huge level difference of the craft due to expansion jumps (crafter level 148 crafting a level 255 craft). The problem is there are limited times where you can actually craft a recipe that much higher level then yourself so its hard to gather data for it to accurately model it. I personally don't have a crafter at a level where this situation can arise so I can't do it myself. If someone can present some data (like presented in #140) I can use it to refine the formulas used, but besides that not much I can do.
To add to this. Careful Synthesis 3 failed from what I figure is the same issue. Crafting the level 66 Azurite at 64. Tool is saying that I should be getting 409 and instead I'm getting 398. GSM 64, craftsmanship (941) 978, control 888, and cp (414) 457. The numbers in parenthesis are the actual base stats as I'm I've eaten tempura to increase the stats.
I'll soon have about all crafters at 65 so if people want me to test something just write up what you want and I'll see if I can fill in some of it. Like do you want me to try crafting something +4 above, +3, +2, +1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4 then level and craft those items again to see what changes?
Does it give an accurate number while not using Ingenuity?
More data is always helpful to improve the formula. Right now I am fairly confident in the results for a level 61-70 crafter doing level 61-70 recipes with no Ingenuity. Its the values with Ingeuity (I & II) that there isn't much data on, and is just going off of previous work.
Sorry. Yes. Integrity 1 is being used and I tested it again with Careful Synthesis 2. Same stats carefuly synthesis 2 in the tool says 327 and actually got 318.
No. Tool says 209. I actually got 210 for careful synthesis 2. Fore careful synthesis 3 I got 262 and the tool says I should get 261
I consider within 1 point to be acceptable accuracy. It would require a lot better understanding of the crafting formulas to get it totally exact.
Back to your original issue, seems to be some mistakes with the Ingenuity values for 61-69 recipes. So any data on progress during those levels with either Ingenuity I or II could help me correct those.
Ok. I'll craft -4 to +4 my level with integrity 1 active for careful synthesis 2, level, and level again and get back to you with numbers. Please note it'll probably take me a bit a day or so.
I did some testing based on level discrepancies.
Level 53 CRP 430 Craftmanship 387 Control 310 CP
First recipe was a lv53 Holy Cedar Armillae
Second Recipe was lv58 Birch Lumber
The only issue was it was either +/- 1 on Progress/Quality which was stated not an issue and within respectable difference.
Could the issue with the number differences be between expansion crafts? <60 Craftmanship job for >61 Crafts? My initial post was ARM was level 56 & 57. So it was the same level difference in regards to the recipe crafts.
979 Craftsmanship 918 Control
| Adj level | Item Crafted | Synthesis 2 with integrity I | Synthesis 3 with integrity I | Synthesis 2 with integrity II | Synthesis 3 with integrity II | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lv65 | -4 | Gyr Abanian Flour | 372 | 465 | 372 | 465 |
| -3 | Algae Salt | 372 | 465 | 372 | 465 | |
| -2 | Cottonseed Oil | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -1 | Beet Sugar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| 0 | Rice Vinegar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| +1 | Steppe Salad | 333 | 417 | 338 | 423 | |
| +2 | Egg Foo Young | 309 | 386 | 313 | 392 | |
| +3 | Onigara-Yaki | 271 | 339 | 284 | 355 | |
| +4 | Jerked Jhammel | 239 | 299 | 246 | 308 | |
| lv66 | -4 | Algae Salt | 372 | 465 | 372 | 465 |
| -3 | Cottonseed Oil | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -2 | Beet Sugar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -1 | Rice Vinegar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| 0 | Steppe Salad | 348 | 435 | 353 | 442 | |
| +1 | Egg Foo Young | 323 | 404 | 328 | 410 | |
| +2 | Onigara-Yaki | 308 | 386 | 313 | 392 | |
| +3 | Jerked Jhammel | 271 | 339 | 283 | 354 | |
| +4 | Jhammel Moussaka | 239 | 299 | 246 | 308 | |
| lv67 | -4 | Cottonseed Oil | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 |
| -3 | Beet Sugar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -2 | Rice Vinegar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -1 | Steppe Salad | 363 | 454 | 363 | 454 | |
| 0 | Egg Foo Young | 338 | 423 | 343 | 429 | |
| +1 | Onigara-Yaki | 323 | 404 | 328 | 410 | |
| +2 | Jerked Jhammel | 308 | 385 | 313 | 392 | |
| +3 | Jhammel Moussaka | 271 | 339 | 283 | 354 | |
| +4 | NULL | |||||
| lv68 | -4 | Beet Sugar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 |
| -3 | Rice Vinegar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 | |
| -2 | Steppe Salad | 368 | 460 | 371 | 463 | |
| -1 | Egg Foo Young | 353 | 441 | 358 | 448 | |
| 0 | Onigara-Yaki | 338 | 423 | 343 | 429 | |
| +1 | Jerked Jhammel | 323 | 404 | 328 | 410 | |
| +2 | Jhammel Moussaka | 308 | 385 | 313 | 391 | |
| +3 | NULL | |||||
| +4 | NULL | |||||
| lv69 | -4 | Rice Vinegar | 371 | 464 | 371 | 464 |
| -3 | Steppe Salad | 371 | 463 | 371 | 463 | |
| -2 | Egg Foo Young | 363 | 454 | 365 | 457 | |
| -1 | Onigara-Yaki | 353 | 441 | 358 | 447 | |
| 0 | Jerked Jhammel | 338 | 422 | 343 | 429 | |
| +1 | Jhammel Moussaka | 323 | 404 | 328 | 410 | |
| +2 | NULL | |||||
| +3 | NULL | |||||
| +4 | NULL |
Tested by doing Integrity 1, then Careful Syn 2 then 3. Then repeated with Integrity 2. No gear was changed. Only level
Thanks.
68-69 will be useful as well. Ingenuity is currently modelled by reducing the recipe level to a lower level. We don't have a set formula for that reduction, but use a lookup table for each recipe level.
Need me to try 1 star recipes? Or the 70 no star good enough? Paused where I did just in case.
Update: NM Just looked at the requirements and I can't attempt the 1 star without changing gear. I'll just continue leveling.
70 1 star recipes should be accurate atm, but additional data never hurts anyone.
Updated. Yeah. Didn't have the gear to 1 star it with the way I was testing it. Game wouldn't even let me attempt just to find numbers.
Anyway. Hope that helps you guys out.
Today's marco generation with "Careful Synthesis II" was wrong:
16 step: expected 203; actual progress 201 18-24 steps: expected 174; actual progress 167
``Monte Carlo Example
№ Action DUR CP QUA PRG IQ WWYW CTL QINC BPRG BQUA WAC Cond S/F 0 80 389 0 0 0 0 803 0 0 0 0 Normal 0 1 Comfort Zone 80 323 0 0 0 0 803 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 2 Inner Quiet 80 313 0 0 0 0 803 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 3 Steady Hand II 80 296 0 0 0 0 803 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 4 Hasty Touch 70 304 155 0 1 0 803 155 0 155 0 Normal 1 5 Hasty Touch 60 312 340 0 2 0 964 185 0 185 0 Normal 1 6 Hasty Touch 50 320 556 0 3 0 1124 216 0 216 0 Good 1 7 Hasty Touch 40 328 556 0 3 0 1285 0 0 248 0 Normal 0 8 Hasty Touch 30 336 804 0 4 0 1285 248 0 248 0 Normal 1 9 Manipulation 30 256 804 0 4 0 1445 0 0 0 0 Good 1 10 Hasty Touch 30 264 1226 0 5 0 1445 422 0 281 0 Normal 1 11 Ingenuity 40 248 1226 0 5 0 1606 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 12 Standard Touch 40 216 1817 0 6 0 1606 591 0 591 0 Normal 1 13 Hasty Touch 30 216 1817 0 6 0 1767 0 0 524 0 Normal 0 14 Great Strides 30 184 1817 0 6 0 1767 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 15 Byregot's Blessing 20 160 4125 0 0 0 1767 2308 0 2308 0 Normal 1 16 Careful Synthesis II 10 160 4125 203 0 0 803 0 203 0 0 Normal 1 17 Master's Mend II 70 0 4125 203 0 0 803 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 18 Careful Synthesis II 60 0 4125 377 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Good 1 19 Careful Synthesis II 50 0 4125 551 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 20 Careful Synthesis II 40 0 4125 725 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 21 Careful Synthesis II 30 0 4125 899 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 22 Careful Synthesis II 20 0 4125 1073 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 23 Careful Synthesis II 10 0 4125 1247 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 24 Careful Synthesis II 0 0 4125 1421 0 0 803 0 174 0 0 Normal 1 Progress Check: true, Durability Check: true, CP Check: true, Tricks Check: true, Reliability Check: true, Cross Class Skills: 6, Wasted Actions: 0 ``
`` Seed: 76042
Crafter: Class: Goldsmith Level: 60 Craftsmanship: 888 Control: 803 CP: 389 Specialist: false
Recipe: Level: 260 Difficulty: 1400 Durability: 80 Start Quality: 0 Max Quality: 9065 Aspect: none
Settings: Max Tricks Uses: 0 Reliability: 100% Use Conditions: true Algorithm: eaSimple Population: 333 Generations: 10000 Penalty Weight: 10000
No initial sequence provided; seeding with the following heuristic sequence:
Comfort Zone | Inner Quiet | Steady Hand II | Hasty Touch | Manipulation | Hasty Touch | Hasty Touch | Hasty Touch | Hasty Touch | Hasty Touch | Great Strides | Byregot's Blessing | Ingenuity II | Careful Synthesis II | Master's Mend II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II
Heuristic sequence feasibility: Progress: true, Durability: true, CP: true, Tricks: true, Reliability: true `` (crafting fail, because not enought progress)
With or without ingenuity, failing. Was getting 88 progress while tool reported 91
Seed: 24890, Use Conditions: true
Monte Carlo Example
Action DUR CP QUA PRG IQ WWYW CTL QINC BPRG BQUA WAC Cond S/F
0 40 321 0 0 0 0 460 0 0 0 0 Normal 0 1 Comfort Zone 40 255 0 0 0 0 460 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 2 Inner Quiet 40 245 0 0 0 0 460 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 3 Careful Synthesis II 30 253 0 91 0 0 460 0 91 0 0 Excellent 1 4 Manipulation 30 173 0 91 0 0 460 0 0 0 0 Poor 1 5 Standard Touch 30 149 58 91 1 0 460 58 0 116 0 Normal 1 6 Careful Synthesis II 30 157 58 182 1 0 552 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 7 Careful Synthesis II 30 165 58 273 1 0 552 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 8 Careful Synthesis II 20 173 58 364 1 0 552 0 91 0 0 Good 1 9 Manipulation 20 93 58 364 1 0 552 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 10 Careful Synthesis II 20 101 58 455 1 0 552 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 11 Careful Synthesis II 20 109 58 546 1 0 552 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 12 Basic Touch 20 91 167 546 2 0 552 109 0 109 0 Normal 1 13 Manipulation 20 3 167 546 2 0 644 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 14 Careful Synthesis II 20 3 167 637 2 0 644 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 15 Rumination 30 27 167 637 0 0 644 0 0 0 0 Normal 1 16 Careful Synthesis II 30 27 167 728 0 0 460 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 17 Careful Synthesis II 20 27 167 819 0 0 460 0 91 0 0 Good 1 18 Careful Synthesis II 10 27 167 910 0 0 460 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 19 Careful Synthesis II 0 27 167 1001 0 0 460 0 91 0 0 Normal 1 Progress Check: true, Durability Check: true, CP Check: true, Tricks Check: true, Reliability Check: true, Cross Class Skills: 3, Wasted Actions: 0
Monte Carlo Result of 500 runs
DUR CP QUA PRG HQ%
Expected Value: 0 22 184.9 1001.0 2.0
Median Value: 0 27 225.0 1001.0 2.0
Min Value: 0 3 0.0 1001.0 1.0
Success Rate: 100.0 %
Seed: 108789
Crafter: Class: Alchemist Level: 59 Craftsmanship: 480 Control: 460 CP: 321 Specialist: false
Recipe: Level: 270 Difficulty: 984 Durability: 40 Start Quality: 0 Max Quality: 10439 Aspect: none
Settings: Max Tricks Uses: 0 Reliability: 100% Use Conditions: true Algorithm: eaComplex Population: 1000 Generations: 200 Penalty Weight: 5000
No initial sequence provided; seeding with the following heuristic sequence:
Comfort Zone | Inner Quiet | Basic Touch | Careful Synthesis II | Manipulation | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Manipulation | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Manipulation | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II | Careful Synthesis II
Heuristic sequence feasibility: Progress: true, Durability: true, CP: true, Tricks: true, Reliability: true
I can concur that Careful Synthesis II figures are off by at least a point. I'm getting regular fails and every simulation attempt I try to use always wants me to use only 1 instance of Careful Synthesis II.
