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Climate change impacts
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports AR4 and AR5 documented observed responses to climate change across a wide range of systems as well as regions.
Observed Impacts AR4 from Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change IPCC
AR4 Dataset
Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004
Recent warming around the world has caused changes in many physical and biological systems. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and Rosenzweig et al. (2008) documented observed responses to climate change across a wide range of systems as well as regions [1, 2]. In the database, responses in physical systems include shrinking glaciers in every continent, melting permafrost, shifts in spring peak river discharge associated with earlier snowmelt, lake and river warming (with effects on thermal stratification, chemistry, and freshwater organisms), and increases in coastal erosion. For terrestrial biological systems, changes documented in the database include shifts in spring events (e.g., earlier leaf unfolding, blooming date, migration, and timing of reproduction), species distributions, and community structure. Database observations also demonstrate changes in marine-ecosystem functioning and productivity, including shifts from cold-adapted to warm-adapted communities, phenological changes and alterations in species interactions. In each category, many of the data series are over 35 years in length.
For the database, observations were selected that (1) demonstrate a statistically significant trend in change in either direction in systems related to temperature or other climate change variable as described by the authors; and (2) contain data for at least 20 years between 1970 and 2004 (although study periods may extend earlier or later). For each observation, the data series is described in terms of system, region, longitude and latitude, dates and duration, statistical significance, type of impact, and whether or not land use was identified as a driving factor. System changes are taken from ~80 studies (of which ~75 are new since the IPCC Third Assessment Report) containing >29,500 data series. Observations in the database are characterized as a ?change consistent with warming? or a ?change not consistent with warming,? based on information from the underlying studies.
The locations of the observed physical and biological changes were overlaid on observed temperatures from 1970-2004 using two different gridded observed temperature data sets: HadCRUT3 [3] and GHCN-ERSST [4]. A spatial analysis showed that the agreement between the patterns of observed significant changes in natural systems and temperature change is very unlikely to be due to natural variability. Thus, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and Rosenzweig et al. (2008) concluded that it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernable influence on many physical and biological systems at a global scale.
Disclaimer:
Questions regarding this database should be addressed to Cynthia Rosenzweig. Part of the European data [5] was contributed by Annette Menzel. Users should contact her regarding these data. Their contact emails are included in the data description of the database.
References:
- Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin, and P. Tryjanowski. 2007. Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- Rosenzweig, C., D. Karoly, M. Vicarelli, P. Neofotis, Q.G. Wu, G. Casassa, A. Menzel, T.L. Root, N. Estrella, B. Seguin, P. Tryjanowski, C.Z. Liu, S. Rawlins, and A. Imeson. 2008. Attributing Physical and Biological Impacts to Anthropogenic Climate Change. Nature, 453(7193): 353-357.
Download PDF Supplementary material
- Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett, and P.D. Jones. 2006. Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111, D12106.
- Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds. 2005. A Global Merged Land and Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880?1997). Journal of Climate, 18(12): 2021-2036.
- Menzel, A., T.H. Sparks, N. Estrella, E. Koch, A. Aasa, R. Ahas, K. Alm-K�bler, P. Bissolli, O. Braslavsk�, A. Briede, F.M. Chmielewski, Z. Crepinsek, Y. Curnel, �. Dahl, C. Defila, A. Donnelly, Y. Yolanda Filella, K. Katarzyna Jatczak, F. Finn M�ge, A. Antonio Mestre, �. Nordli, J. Pe�uelas, P. Pirinen, V. Remi?ov�, H. Scheifinger, M. Striz, A. Susnik, A. Vliet J.H. van, F.-E. Wielgolaski, S. Zach, and A. Zust. 2006. European Phenological Response to Climate Change Matches the Warming Pattern. Global Change Biology, 12(10): 1969-1976.
The original database was constructed at GISS with contributions from IPCC AR4 WGII Chapter 1 Authors. This version 1.0 of the database was compiled by a GISS-CIESIN team and was reviewed and approved for publication at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) by the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) 15th meeting at Geneva, Switzerland, on 19-21 November, 2008.
Data Citation
Rosenzweig, C., P. Neofotis, M. Vicarelli, and X. Xing (eds.). 2008. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database Version 1.0. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. Available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/observed/. (date of download).
Acknowledgements
IPCC AR4 Chapter 1 Authors who contributed to the development of the database include: Gino Casassa (Centro de Estudios Cient�ficos, Chili), David J. Karoly (University of Melbourne, Australia), Anton Imeson (3D-Environmental Change, Netherlands), Chunzhen Liu (China Water Information Center, China), Annette Menzel (Technical University of Munich, Germany), Samuel Rawlins (Caribbean Epidemiology Center, Trinadad and Tobago), Terry L. Root (Stanford University, USA), Bernard Seguin (INRA Unit� Agroclim, France), Piotr Tryjanowski (Adam Mickiewicz University, Poland), Nicole Estrella (Technical University of Munich, Germany), and Qigang Wu (University of Oklahoma, USA).
We also thank Robert S. Chen, Marc Levy, Alex de Sherbinin and Maria Muniz (The Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN, Columbia University, USA), Richard H. Moss and Jose Marengo (Co-Chairs of IPCC TGICA), Timothy Carter (Finnish Environment Institute - SYKE, Finland), Gao Xuejie (Climate Modeling Center, China Meteorological Administration), Martin Manning (Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand), Tom Kram (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands), Martin Juckes (IPCC Data Distribution Centre at British Atmospheric Data Centre, UK), and Michael Lautenschlager (IPCC Data Distribution Centre at World Data Centre for Climate, Germany).
AR5 Observed Climate Change Impacts - Global patterns of observed climate change impacts reported since AR4
Report of AR5 summarizes a range of impacts observed around the world based on a detailed analysis of the peer-reviewed literature. This set of web pages reproduces Figure 18.3 and Tables 18-5 to 18-9 from the Working Group II report and the references explicitly mentioned in the tables. A downloadable spreadsheet of the table contents and references is in preparation. The published tables in the AR5 can be found here.
Guidance documents and support materials
Citation
Cramer, W., G.W. Yohe, M. Auffhammer, C. Huggel, U. Molau, M.A.F. da Silva Dias, A. Solow, D.A. Stone, and L. Tibig, 2014: Detection and attribution of observed impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 979-1037.
Data Citation
IPCC. 2015. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database Version 2.0. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. Available at http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/observed_ar5/. (date of download).
Acknowledgements
IPCC AR5 Chapter 18: Coordinating Lead Authors: Wolfgang Cramer (Germany/France), Gary W. Yohe (USA) Lead Authors: Maximilian Auffhammer (USA), Christian Huggel (Switzerland), Ulf Molau (Sweden), Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias (Brazil), Andrew Solow (USA), Dáithí A. Stone (Canada/South Africa/USA), Lourdes Tibig (Philippines) Contributing Authors: Laurens Bouwer (Netherlands), Mark Carey (USA), Graham Cogley (Canada), Dim Coumou (Germany), Yuka Otsuki Estrada (USA/Japan), Eberhard Faust (Germany), Gerrit Hansen (Germany), Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Joanna House (UK), Solomon Hsiang (USA), Lesley Hughes (Australia), Sari Kovats (UK), Paul Leadley (France), David Lobell (USA), Camille Parmesan (USA), Elvira Poloczanska (Australia), Hans Otto Pörtner (Germany), Andy Reisinger (New Zealand) Review Editors: Rik Leemans (Netherlands), Bernard Seguin (France), Neville Smith (Australia) Volunteer Chapter Scientist: Gerrit Hansen (Germany)
We also thank Robert S. Chen, Xiaoshi Xing, and Alyssa Fico (The Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN, Columbia University, USA), Rachel Warren (University of East Anglia, UK), Stewart Cohen (Environment and Climate Change, Canada), Gregory Insarov (Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences), Timothy R. Carter (Finnish Environment Institute - SYKE), Bruce Hewitson (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Other potential sources
@rgrp Impacts http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/observed/index.html
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_KlKJBuuX4aV0dUckl5TzNuc3M
@Snekili @rgrp I can start packing this one following this link http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/observed/data/IPCC_AR4_Observed_CC_Impacts_Database_v1.0.xls I can map values with description provided in "Data fieldnames" sheet
@zelima can you give a sample / summary of what is in that database / spreadsheet. Also feel free to start a data package for this.
@rgrp Spreadsheet contains three sheets - data description, column name and data documentation, and data sheet itself. Original file looks something like this (I've omitted most of columns for better visualisation):
Year_pub,Ref,Ch_Reg,Lat,Long,SGNFCNT,Change,Air_T,SST,Prec
2003,Panuelas J. 2002,4,41.37,2.32,5,1,2,1,1
2002,Cook A.J. 2005,6,65.23,3.56,5,1,0,0,0
There are 20 columns total. All of the column names are defined on "documentation sheet" and all of the values are explained there. Meaning:
For example last column(Prec) in the example above is defined as prescription and its values 1 and 0 are defined as yes and no
This means that I can map column names and their values with their description, from documentation sheet and output file will directly contain e.g "yes" or "no" instead of unclear 1, 0
@rgrp @Snekili I've just discovered that I have ready datapackage for this one. I packaged it referring to https://github.com/datasets/registry/issues/146 this issue.
You can view repository here: https://github.com/zelima/climate-change You can view data package here: http://data.okfn.org/tools/view?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fzelima%2Fclimate-change Validation link: http://data.okfn.org/tools/validate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fzelima%2Fclimate-change
@zelima (and useful for @Snekili). If the data has documentation you need to add that to the description of each field in the schema (probably by hand but possibly automatically).
Also the README is very weak here and needs improving. Can you guys work on this together.
I'd also rename the data package to climate-change-impacts
/cc @rgieseke - who may be interested in these climate data packages too
Nice work! @zelima @rgrp Do you want to include other impact datasets as well in this data package? If not I would consider calling it "ipcc-ar4-climate-change-impacts" or "ipcc-climate-change-impacts".
@rgrp updated datapackage.json with descriptions: https://github.com/zelima/climate-change-impacts/commit/f206eddaaf1ee0f8a1b94bb84778777ed49b30d0
@Snekili updated README.md please review it and help with improvements, e.g something is missing, or something is extra etc.. Also I could not find any Legal rights or Licenses page on their website. Maybe you know something.
@rgieseke I'm not competent enough in this case to "want to include" anything else in this data package. I would ask thoughts to @rgrp. Right now I renamed package to "climate-change-impacts"
Waiting for further comments, thanks for help all!
@rgieseke agree re naming though would usually have the qualifying provider at the end e.g. climate-change-impacts-ipcc[-ar4].
@rgieseke do you have thoughts on what would go into a generic climate-change-impacts package?
@zelima / @Snekili please report back once you have reviewed the README.
@rgieseke agree re naming though would usually have the qualifying provider at the end e.g. climate-change-impacts-ipcc[-ar4].
climate-change-impacts-ipcc is probably a good choice then. There is also one from the AR5 report: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/observed_ar5/index.html
Though there is no spreadsheet available:
"A downloadable spreadsheet of the table contents and references is in preparation."
@rgieseke do you have thoughts on what would go into a generic climate-change-impacts package?
Not sure whether it would make sense to have one generic package as there are potentially quite many sectors and studies. A project providing "a framework for consistently projecting the impacts of climate change across affected sectors and spatial scales" is the ISIMIP project.
@zelima @rgrp Updated README for AR4. As for licence, I can't find it ether, but found this on page: Disclaimer:
Questions regarding this database should be addressed to Cynthia Rosenzweig. Part of the European data [5] was contributed by Annette Menzel. Users should contact her regarding these data. Their contact emails are included in the data description of the database.
@rgieseke this is great. Do you have a README or other documentation writing up some of your learning here - you clearly have done a lot of digging :-)
@zelima can we rename the package as per suggestions (when you get a moment!)
@all sorry for late respond.
- Renamed the package to
climate-change-impacts-ipcc-ar4since Github does not allow square brackets[]https://github.com/zelima/climate-change-impacts-ipcc-ar4 - @Snekili Updated license part: https://github.com/zelima/climate-change-impacts-ipcc-ar4/commit/ff34b1663b1a155d7dc20f4a8a3134349df78e9b