Ben Bolker
How wide a net do you want to cast? This could be a big job ... https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691125220/ecological-models-and-data-in-r https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319974866 http://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-primer-in-biological-data-analysis-and-visualization-using-r/9780231166997 https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9780387898810 (and the entire [UseR! series](https://www.springer.com/series/6991) from Springer https://cran.r-project.org/other-docs.html (frozen) https://www.r-project.org/doc/bib/R-books.html...
Is this documented somewhere more prominent? If not, could it be? I went to the [images page](https://rocker-project.org/images/) and encountered the same issue (with the same solution). .e.g., tell people to...
This is a fine idea, but if you're not familiar with time series modeling (sorry if you are and I'm telling you things you already know) you should note that...
+100 to @insidedctm's comment. That said, it would be interesting and valuable to formalize the calibration procedure and quantify how reliable it is (for example, first by running the calibration...
Yes, exactly. That's the point of the link I posted [above](https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/206#issuecomment-626357759). The model is almost certainly not "autoregressive" in the sense that would make naive splits into training and validation...
You have to distinguish between *scenarios* (expected outcome if ...) and forecasts. You raise some important issues, but these are all standard (and basically intractable) problems in epidemic forecasting. The...
It's a nice idea, but I doubt it's that simple. Here's [another paper](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0962280217747054) on testing calibration of epidemic models (albeit in a much simpler framework); most of the emphasis is...
It is really, really hard to sort out effects of climate, culture, intervention, exposure, etc.. Some starting points in the literature: - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/15/science.abc2535 - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30106-6/fulltext - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20064923v1 > Conclusion: Considering...
@sublimator: I think this issues list is not the best forum for **general** discussion of COVID modelling problems (see also my comment [here](https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/247#issuecomment-628282774)). If you have *specific* suggestions or questions...
Your points are well taken. I have two concerns: - for better or worse the modelling team are too busy to spend very much time engaging with this forum (you...