quanto-manca
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MarcoBuster
Better (different?) data analytics
The intentions were good at the start, I truly believed the number of vaccines per day was going to stabilize after some days, weeks at maximum. The analytics showed in the current version of the website are misleading, because:
- 1 week isn't a great period of time to do analysis of this type; the vaccines data is very volatile and it makes no sense to take a arbitrary period of time and trace a dumb trend line.
- we can't predict the future: no one, even the government, knows how many vaccines will be available because there is a huge number of unpredictable variables out of our control.
An user (u/_bidonvillain) from Reddit gave some suggestions I think we should consider. Feel free to comment this issue if you have any meaningful ideas.
Thanks for the project! Have you seen this? https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/numeri-vaccini-italia-mondo/ Like them, I'd rather use the number of doses to be administered as an indicator of advancement. Taking only the "fully vaccinated", with two doses, might be misleading. In fact, it seems that full vaccinations goes in waves, like when jabs are re-directed to second dose people only (see again the lab24 page in the "Prime e seconde dosi" chart).
Jabs per day instead (regardless of the dose order number), in my opinion, are a measure of the real "vaccination system" performance.
I think 7-days average is reasonable.
I note that they use 70 % of the population as herd immunity level.
@elehcim thank you for your comment.
Like them, I'd rather use the number of doses to be administered as an indicator of advancement. Taking only the "fully vaccinated", with two doses, might be misleading. In fact, it seems that full vaccinations goes in waves, like when jabs are re-directed to second dose people only (see again the lab24 page in the "Prime e seconde dosi" chart).
Jabs per day instead (regardless of the dose order number), in my opinion, are a measure of the real "vaccination system" performance.
I think the real question is: are the "half-vaccinated" people considered as immuned population or not? The aim of the site is not really to measure the vaccination system performance (like Il Sole 24 ore is trying to do) but to estimate the herd immunity HIT date. I don't know if we can answer that question.
I think 7-days average is reasonable.
Maybe 14-days? I have to do some tests.
I note that they use 70 % of the population as herd immunity level.
Thank you, noted.
Late to the discussion, but maybe would make sense to also take into account the accelletation of the vaccination process in the last month.
