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20 hours ago •
LCA-ActivityBrowser
LCA-ActivityBrowser
Monte Carlo results seem off
Updating AB
- [X] Yes, I have updated AB and still experience this issue
What happened?
I ran multiple Monte Carlo analyses (100 iterations) on the "market for electricity, low voltage | electricity, low voltage | CA-QC | ecoinvent3.9.1 cut-off" process. The deterministic value for this process is 0.026651 kgCO2eq (using the IPCC2021 method). Yet, when I run Monte Carlo on this process alone (not modified or anything) the mean for the Monte Carlo is between 0.0293 and 0.0294 (did 4 times 100 iterations MC) and the median between 0.0285 and 0.0293. This is extremely weird that neither the mean or the median is remotely close from the deterministic result.
Similar issues observed on AB and on brightway2 itself (did not test brightway2.5).
Just to be sure I also tried with another process. Same issue with the process "market for 1-propanol | 1-propanol | GLO | ecoinvent3.9.1 cut-off" whose deterministic result is 6.6185kgCO2eq and MC results turn around 7.52kgCO2eq (mean) and 7.37kgCO2eq (median).
Relevant errors
No response
Operating system
Windows 11
Conda environment
activity-browser 2.9.7 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
anyio 4.3.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
appdirs 1.4.4 pyh9f0ad1d_0 conda-forge
argon2-cffi 23.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
argon2-cffi-bindings 21.2.0 py311ha68e1ae_4 conda-forge
arrow 1.3.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
asteval 0.9.31 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
asttokens 2.4.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
astunparse 1.6.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
async-lru 2.0.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
attrs 23.2.0 pyh71513ae_0 conda-forge
babel 2.14.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
beautifulsoup4 4.12.3 pyha770c72_0 conda-forge
bleach 6.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
blinker 1.7.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
brightway2 2.4.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
brotli 1.1.0 hcfcfb64_1 conda-forge
brotli-bin 1.1.0 hcfcfb64_1 conda-forge
brotli-python 1.1.0 py311h12c1d0e_1 conda-forge
brotlicffi 1.1.0.0 py311h12c1d0e_1 conda-forge
bw2analyzer 0.10 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
bw2calc 1.8.2 py311h1ea47a8_0 conda-forge
bw2data 3.6.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
bw2io 0.8.10 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
bw2parameters 1.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
bw_migrations 0.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
bzip2 1.0.8 hcfcfb64_5 conda-forge
ca-certificates 2024.2.2 h56e8100_0 conda-forge
cached-property 1.5.2 hd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
cached_property 1.5.2 pyha770c72_1 conda-forge
certifi 2024.2.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
cffi 1.16.0 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
charset-normalizer 3.3.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
click 8.1.7 win_pyh7428d3b_0 conda-forge
colorama 0.4.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
comm 0.2.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
console_shortcut 0.1.1 4
contourpy 1.2.0 py311h005e61a_0 conda-forge
country-converter 1.2 pypi_0 pypi
cycler 0.12.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
debugpy 1.8.1 py311h12c1d0e_0 conda-forge
decorator 5.1.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
defusedxml 0.7.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
dill 0.3.8 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
docopt 0.6.2 py_1 conda-forge
eidl 2.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
eight 1.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_4 conda-forge
entrypoints 0.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
et_xmlfile 1.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
exceptiongroup 1.2.0 pyhd8ed1ab_2 conda-forge
executing 2.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
fasteners 0.17.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
flask 3.0.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
fonttools 4.49.0 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
fqdn 1.5.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
freetype 2.12.1 hdaf720e_2 conda-forge
fsspec 2024.3.1 pypi_0 pypi
future 1.0.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
gettext 0.21.1 h5728263_0 conda-forge
glib 2.78.4 h12be248_0 conda-forge
glib-tools 2.78.4 h12be248_0 conda-forge
gst-plugins-base 1.22.9 h001b923_0 conda-forge
gstreamer 1.22.9 hb4038d2_0 conda-forge
h11 0.14.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
h2 4.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
hpack 4.0.0 pyh9f0ad1d_0 conda-forge
httpcore 1.0.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
httpx 0.27.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
hyperframe 6.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
icu 73.2 h63175ca_0 conda-forge
idna 3.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
importlib-metadata 7.0.1 pyha770c72_0 conda-forge
importlib_metadata 7.0.1 hd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
importlib_resources 6.1.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
inflate64 1.0.0 py311ha68e1ae_1 conda-forge
intel-openmp 2024.0.0 h57928b3_49841 conda-forge
ipykernel 6.29.2 pyha63f2e9_0 conda-forge
ipython 8.22.1 pyh7428d3b_0 conda-forge
ipywidgets 8.1.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
isoduration 20.11.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
itsdangerous 2.1.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jedi 0.19.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jinja2 3.1.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
json5 0.9.17 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jsonpointer 2.4 py311h1ea47a8_3 conda-forge
jsonschema 4.21.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jsonschema-specifications 2023.12.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jsonschema-with-format-nongpl 4.21.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter 1.0.0 pyhd8ed1ab_10 conda-forge
jupyter-lsp 2.2.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter_client 8.6.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter_console 6.6.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter_core 5.7.1 py311h1ea47a8_0 conda-forge
jupyter_events 0.9.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter_server 2.12.5 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyter_server_terminals 0.5.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyterlab 4.1.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyterlab_pygments 0.3.0 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
jupyterlab_server 2.25.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
jupyterlab_widgets 3.0.10 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
kiwisolver 1.4.5 py311h005e61a_1 conda-forge
krb5 1.21.2 heb0366b_0 conda-forge
lcms2 2.16 h67d730c_0 conda-forge
lerc 4.0.0 h63175ca_0 conda-forge
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libcblas 3.9.0 21_win64_mkl conda-forge
libclang 15.0.7 default_h77d9078_3 conda-forge
libclang13 15.0.7 default_h77d9078_3 conda-forge
libdeflate 1.19 hcfcfb64_0 conda-forge
libexpat 2.5.0 h63175ca_1 conda-forge
libffi 3.4.2 h8ffe710_5 conda-forge
libglib 2.78.4 h16e383f_0 conda-forge
libhwloc 2.9.1 h51c2c0f_0 conda-forge
libiconv 1.17 hcfcfb64_2 conda-forge
libjpeg-turbo 3.0.0 hcfcfb64_1 conda-forge
liblapack 3.9.0 21_win64_mkl conda-forge
libogg 1.3.4 h8ffe710_1 conda-forge
libpng 1.6.43 h19919ed_0 conda-forge
libsodium 1.0.18 h8d14728_1 conda-forge
libsqlite 3.45.1 hcfcfb64_0 conda-forge
libtiff 4.6.0 h6e2ebb7_2 conda-forge
libvorbis 1.3.7 h0e60522_0 conda-forge
libwebp 1.3.2 hcfcfb64_1 conda-forge
libwebp-base 1.3.2 hcfcfb64_0 conda-forge
libxcb 1.15 hcd874cb_0 conda-forge
libxml2 2.10.4 hc3477c8_0 conda-forge
libxslt 1.1.37 h0192164_0 conda-forge
libzlib 1.2.13 hcfcfb64_5 conda-forge
lxml 4.9.2 py311h5942461_0 conda-forge
m2w64-gcc-libgfortran 5.3.0 6 conda-forge
m2w64-gcc-libs 5.3.0 7 conda-forge
m2w64-gcc-libs-core 5.3.0 7 conda-forge
m2w64-gmp 6.1.0 2 conda-forge
m2w64-libwinpthread-git 5.0.0.4634.697f757 2 conda-forge
markupsafe 2.1.5 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
matplotlib-base 3.8.3 py311h6e989c2_0 conda-forge
matplotlib-inline 0.1.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
mistune 3.0.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
mkl 2024.0.0 h66d3029_49657 conda-forge
mrio_common_metadata 0.2.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
msys2-conda-epoch 20160418 1 conda-forge
multiprocess 0.70.16 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
multivolumefile 0.2.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
munkres 1.1.4 pyh9f0ad1d_0 conda-forge
nbclient 0.8.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
nbconvert 7.16.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
nbconvert-core 7.16.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
nbconvert-pandoc 7.16.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
nbformat 5.9.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
nest-asyncio 1.6.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
networkx 3.2.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
notebook 7.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
notebook-shim 0.2.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
numpy 1.23.5 py311h95d790f_0 conda-forge
openjpeg 2.5.0 h3d672ee_3 conda-forge
openpyxl 3.1.2 py311ha68e1ae_1 conda-forge
openssl 3.2.1 hcfcfb64_0 conda-forge
overrides 7.7.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
packaging 23.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pandas 2.1.4 py311hf63dbb6_0 conda-forge
pandoc 3.1.12.1 h57928b3_0 conda-forge
pandocfilters 1.5.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
parso 0.8.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pathos 0.3.2 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
patsy 0.5.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pcre2 10.42 h17e33f8_0 conda-forge
peewee 3.17.1 py311had142b2_0 conda-forge
pickleshare 0.7.5 py_1003 conda-forge
pillow 10.2.0 py311h4dd8a23_0 conda-forge
pint 0.21 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pip 24.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pkgutil-resolve-name 1.3.10 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
platformdirs 4.2.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pox 0.3.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
ppft 1.7.6.8 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
prometheus_client 0.20.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
prompt-toolkit 3.0.42 pyha770c72_0 conda-forge
prompt_toolkit 3.0.42 hd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
psutil 5.9.8 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
pthread-stubs 0.4 hcd874cb_1001 conda-forge
pthreads-win32 2.9.1 hfa6e2cd_3 conda-forge
pure_eval 0.2.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
py7zr 0.20.8 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
pybcj 1.0.2 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
pycparser 2.21 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pycryptodomex 3.19.0 py311ha68e1ae_1 conda-forge
pygments 2.17.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pypardiso 0.4.3 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pyparsing 3.1.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pyperclip 1.8.2 pyhd8ed1ab_2 conda-forge
pyppmd 1.1.0 py311h12c1d0e_0 conda-forge
pyprind 2.11.2 py311h1ea47a8_1005 conda-forge
pyside2 5.15.8 py311h2411a93_2 conda-forge
pysocks 1.7.1 pyh0701188_6 conda-forge
python 3.11.8 h2628c8c_0_cpython conda-forge
python-dateutil 2.8.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
python-fastjsonschema 2.19.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
python-json-logger 2.0.7 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
python-tzdata 2024.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
python_abi 3.11 4_cp311 conda-forge
pytz 2024.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pywin32 306 py311h12c1d0e_2 conda-forge
pywinpty 2.0.12 py311h12c1d0e_0 conda-forge
pyxlsb 1.0.10 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
pyyaml 6.0.1 py311ha68e1ae_1 conda-forge
pyzmq 25.1.2 py311h9250fbb_0 conda-forge
pyzstd 0.15.9 py311he5d195f_1 conda-forge
qt-main 5.15.8 h9e85ed6_19 conda-forge
qt-webengine 5.15.8 h4bf5c4e_4 conda-forge
qtconsole-base 5.5.1 pyha770c72_0 conda-forge
qtpy 2.4.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
referencing 0.33.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
requests 2.31.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
rfc3339-validator 0.1.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
rfc3986-validator 0.1.1 pyh9f0ad1d_0 conda-forge
rpds-py 0.18.0 py311hc37eb10_0 conda-forge
salib 1.4.8 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
scipy 1.12.0 py311h0b4df5a_2 conda-forge
seaborn 0.13.2 hd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
seaborn-base 0.13.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
send2trash 1.8.2 pyh08f2357_0 conda-forge
setuptools 69.1.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
setuptools-scm 8.0.4 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
six 1.16.0 pyh6c4a22f_0 conda-forge
sniffio 1.3.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
soupsieve 2.5 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
stack_data 0.6.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
stats_arrays 0.6.6 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
statsmodels 0.14.1 py311h59ca53f_0 conda-forge
tabulate 0.9.0 pyhd8ed1ab_1 conda-forge
tbb 2021.9.0 h91493d7_0 conda-forge
terminado 0.18.0 pyh5737063_0 conda-forge
texttable 1.7.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
tinycss2 1.2.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
tk 8.6.13 h5226925_1 conda-forge
tomli 2.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
tornado 6.4 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
tqdm 4.66.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
traitlets 5.14.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
types-python-dateutil 2.8.19.20240106 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
typing-extensions 4.9.0 hd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
typing_extensions 4.9.0 pyha770c72_0 conda-forge
typing_utils 0.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
tzdata 2024a h0c530f3_0 conda-forge
ucrt 10.0.22621.0 h57928b3_0 conda-forge
unicodecsv 0.14.1 pyhd8ed1ab_2 conda-forge
unidecode 1.3.8 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
uri-template 1.3.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
urllib3 2.2.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
vc 14.3 hcf57466_18 conda-forge
vc14_runtime 14.38.33130 h82b7239_18 conda-forge
voluptuous 0.14.2 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
vs2015_runtime 14.38.33130 hcb4865c_18 conda-forge
wcwidth 0.2.13 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
webcolors 1.13 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
webencodings 0.5.1 pyhd8ed1ab_2 conda-forge
websocket-client 1.7.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
werkzeug 3.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
wheel 0.42.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
whoosh 2.7.4 py311h1ea47a8_8 conda-forge
widgetsnbextension 4.0.10 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
win_inet_pton 1.1.0 pyhd8ed1ab_6 conda-forge
winpty 0.4.3 4 conda-forge
wrapt 1.16.0 py311ha68e1ae_0 conda-forge
xlrd 2.0.1 pyhd8ed1ab_3 conda-forge
xlsxwriter 3.1.9 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
xorg-libxau 1.0.11 hcd874cb_0 conda-forge
xorg-libxdmcp 1.1.3 hcd874cb_0 conda-forge
xz 5.2.6 h8d14728_0 conda-forge
yaml 0.2.5 h8ffe710_2 conda-forge
zeromq 4.3.5 h63175ca_0 conda-forge
zipfile-deflate64 0.2.0 py311ha68e1ae_4 conda-forge
zipp 3.17.0 pyhd8ed1ab_0 conda-forge
zstd 1.5.5 h12be248_0 conda-forge
Similar issues observed on AB and on brightway2 itself
@cmutel, any thoughts?
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/72660400/variation-between-montecarlo-mean-score-and-static-lca-score
@romainsacchi thanks for answering!
I will close this for now. If there are more questions regarding MC results, I suggest we open a new issue on brightway-lca/brightway2-calc.