IAMconsortium
Aviation activity for contrails climate effect
@chrisroadmap has been asking for an indicator of total aviation activity, to estimate the amount of contrails, and their effect on climate change.
In his words: "total kilometers would be ideal"
Chris, what would be best? Vehicle-km (maybe most useful for you)? Or p-km (maybe most readily available for modellers, just a guess)? Total global aviation?
If we want to be in line with what is reported for emissions and final energy, there would be both a variable being "Domestic Aviation" and "International Aviation"; e.g.
- "Energy Service|Aviation"
- "Energy Service|Aviation|International"
- "Energy Service|Aviation|Domestic "
(note that in final energy and emissions, the hierarchy trees are a bit different)
In the contrail radiative forcing assessment of Lee et al. (2020) which the IPCC AR6 is based on, the contrail radiative forcing scales with total kilometres flown by all aircraft each year. This would be most useful.
However, Energy Service|Aviation is still useful, since this can be converted to a fuel demand, when combined with assumptions about capacity and efficiency can then be converted to total km.
If there is any information about the amount of biofuel and synthetic fuel being used for aviation in addition, this can also be useful. The contrail formation differs depending on the fuel mix. Historically when aviation fuel was virtually 100% fossil, this wasn't necessary to consider.
Note when I say "Energy Service|Aviation" - I was thinking of this as having unit = km (just thinking either per passenger or per plane).
In the current energy consumption variables that can be reported, the split by source of energy is only available for Domestic Aviation, not for International Aviation:
List of final energy aviation variables
| Final Energy|Bunkers|International Aviation | Final energy consumption for international aviation | EJ/yr |
|---|---|---|
| Final Energy|Bunkers|International Aviation|Freight | Final energy consumption for freight transport in international aviation | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Bunkers|International Aviation|Passenger | Final energy consumption for passenger transport in international aviation | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Electricity | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of electricity | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels including natural gas and biogas, not including hydrogen | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Biomass | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels from biogenic sources, mainly biogas | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Coal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels from fossil coal gasification | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Electricity | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gas from electricity i.e., 'power-to-gas' (if hydrogen is not explicitly modeled as an intermediate product) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Fossil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels from fossil fuels including natural gas and coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Gas | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of fossil methane ('natural gas') | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Hydrogen | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels from hydrogen (if hydrogen is explicitly modeled as a commodity and not an implicit intermediate product of the transformation technologies) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Gases|Other | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of gaseous fuels from sources that do not fit any other category | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Biomass | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from biomass, including biogas | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Coal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Electricity | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from electricity | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Fossil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from fossil fuels including natural gas, oil and coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Gas | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from fossil methane ('natural gas') | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Geothermal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from geothermal energy excluding ground-source heat pumps | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Hydrogen | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from hydrogen | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Nuclear | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from nuclear energy | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Oil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from refined crude oil | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Other | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from sources that do not fit any other category | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Heat|Solar | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of centralized heat from solar energy | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Biomass | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen generated from biomass | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Coal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Electricity | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from electrolysis | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Fossil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from fossil fuels including natural gas, oil and coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Gas | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from fossil methane ('natural gas') | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Nuclear | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from nuclear energy (e.g. thermochemical water splitting with nuclear heat) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Oil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from refined crude oil | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Other | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from other sources | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen|Solar | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of hydrogen from solar energy (e.g. thermochemical water splitting with solar heat) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of refined liquid fuels including oil products, fuels from gas and coal, synthetic fuels and biofuels | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Biomass | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from biomass | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Coal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from coal | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Electricity | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid synthetic fuels from electricity, i.e., e-fuels (if hydrogen is not explicitly modeled as an intermediate product) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Fossil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from fossil fuels including coal, natural gas and conventional/unconventional oil | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Gas | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from fossil methane ('natural gas') | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Hydrogen | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from hydrogen (if hydrogen is explicitly modeled as a commodity and not an implicit intermediate product of the transformation technologies) | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Oil | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of liquid fuels from refined crude oil | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Other | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of sources that do not fit any other category | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Other | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of other energy sources | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Solids | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of solid energy carriers, including coal, briquettes, coke, and wood pellets | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Solids|Biomass | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of solid biomass (e.g., commercial charcoal, wood chips, wood pellets), not including traditional bioenergy | EJ/yr |
| Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Solids|Coal | Final energy consumption by the domestic aviation sector of coal, lignite, and derived products (e.g., coke, briquettes) | EJ/yr |
I suppose this could be changed to also add those options for International Aviation, although I have no good feeling who would already be able to report it, and who would need to do extra work to calculate it.
Aha - OK, so you will request a new output? Fantastic.
If this is not possible, I would still like modellers to give us something currently on the existing list that we can work with. I'd say these are the priorities:
Final Energy|Bunkers|International Aviation|Freight Final Energy|Bunkers|International Aviation|Passenger Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Hydrogen Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Fossil Final Energy|Transportation|Domestic Aviation|Liquids|Biomass