How accurate are our stop time predictions

[bschoenfeld]

Our stop time predictions are pretty simple. We add the last reported adherence to the scheduled stop time. What is the rate of change of the adherence? How many time checks are built in to the route? Obviously, the adherence is 100% accurate when the bus is at your stop. What about 5 minutes before it get's there? 10 minutes? 30 minutes? An hour?

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