How to get conditional probability alive for the next few periods?

[rachelyee]

Hi, just wanted to find how can i get the probability alive for a few periods out. Conditional_probability_alive() only gets the current probability alive but i would like to get probability for a few periods out, like how it can be done in plot_history_alive. Is there a workaround for this?

[ColtAllen]

Hey @rachelyee, the best workaround for the BetaGeoFitter would be to increment the T array input into conditional_probability_alive(). This notebook contains an example for an individual customer:

https://www.pymc-marketing.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/clv_quickstart.html#customer-probability-histories

pymc-marketing is the successor library to lifetimes, and it's worth mentioning the upcoming ParetoNBDModel has this capability by default.