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Clarification on Calculation of Interval in Chapter 2

Open OrtizNicola opened this issue 1 year ago • 1 comments

In Chapter 2, the author states:

"With regards to the above plot, we are still pretty uncertain about what the true frequency of cheaters might be, but we have narrowed it down to a range between 0.05 to 0.35 (marked by the solid lines)."

I am trying to understand how these values (0.05 to 0.35) are calculated. I initially thought they were derived from the Highest Density Interval (HDI), but the HDI is from 0 to 0.42.

Can someone provide an explanation of how to calculate the 0.05 to 0.35 interval mentioned in the book? Any pointers or detailed steps would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you!

OrtizNicola avatar Jul 22 '24 06:07 OrtizNicola

I also want to know where these numbers come from.

Now I think 0.05 and 0.35 might have their roots in the plot. Something like majority of mass falling in the range of [0.05, 0.35]. After reading chapter 3, I try az.plot_posterior with hdi_prob=0.8, then I get a plot saying 80% hdi lies between 0.042 and 0.35.

Don't know whether the above guess is correct or not. But I decide to read on later chapters in the hope of things will get clear thereafter.

miba2020 avatar Aug 15 '24 02:08 miba2020