Potential Issue with Float Cap

[thewilhelmscream]

Since certain skins have float caps this can greatly skew ROI for items. It is unclear to what degree this is factored into your calculations. I have written some code that can calculate the adjusted odds when factoring in the float cap. This makes a huge difference for float-capped items that are worth a lot and could skew prices. You might assume that a FN Fire Serpent (ignore whether it has ST or not) is 1/70 based on the 0.06-0.76 float cap when in reality when adjusting for the float cap the rarity is closer to 1/163 which is more than double. This probability adjustment is mentioned by step in the same article you pulled the float percentages from.

I know there are limits to what you can keep track of, but this seems like a no-brainer that you could automate fairly easily with the right code.

[qianjiachun]

Since certain skins have float caps this can greatly skew ROI for items. It is unclear to what degree this is factored into your calculations. I have written some code that can calculate the adjusted odds when factoring in the float cap. This makes a huge difference for float-capped items that are worth a lot and could skew prices. You might assume that a FN Fire Serpent (ignore whether it has ST or not) is 1/70 based on the 0.06-0.76 float cap when in reality when adjusting for the float cap the rarity is closer to 1/163 which is more than double. This probability adjustment is mentioned by step in the same article you pulled the float percentages from.

I know there are limits to what you can keep track of, but this seems like a no-brainer that you could automate fairly easily with the right code.

Hey friend, could you please share your calculation process😂